As the key indicator of inflation, a rising CPI may prompt the Swiss National Bank to raise interest rates in attempt to manage inflation and slow economic growth.
Selling USD/CAD Scenario
The headline number is the projected value of the Large Manufacturer's Index for the next quarter. Forecasts the value of the Non-Manufacturing Index in the next quarter.
The Non-Manufacturing Outlook is a good measure of future business expectations, providing an indication of economic trends based on factors like projected profits, capital investment, and consumer demand. The headline number is the projected value of the Non-Manufacturing Diffusion Index for the next quarter. Measures capital expenditure capex by all Japanese industries except the financial industry.
Capital expenditure is an early indicator for production since companies usually make capital investments in order to expand operational productivity. Thus increasing capex figures can forecast economic growth, particularly if they are accompanied by high capacity utilization rates.
The headline number is the annualized percentage change in spending from the previous quarter. A monthly estimate of inflation in the Australian economy. The report replicates the methodology used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics to calculate quarterly CPI, striving to correspond closely with official government numbers.
The figure is important because it acts as a timelier indicator of inflation, coming out monthly instead of the quarterly CPI figures. Released one day before interest rate decisions are made, the figure may influence RBA considerations for rate hikes or reductions.
As with any gauge of inflation in Australia , a high value in the figure is bullish for the Australian dollar, since real inflationary pressures are usually met by the Reserve Bank of Australia with bullish rate hikes. The headline figure is the month-over-month or annualized inflation rate. Measures changes in sales of the German retail sector. Given that consumption makes up a significant portion of German GDP, the Retail Sales figure can act as an indicator of domestic demand. High or rising Retail Sales may spur German consumption, translating into economic growth.
However, uncontrolled growth runs the risk of inflationary pressures. Since Germany is a large part of the Euro-zone, German figures may have some impact on the market. The headline figure is expressed in percentage change in the value of sales. Reports the cumulative percentage of unemployed individuals in the Euro-zone nations. A low or falling unemployment rate is associated with increased expenditure, given that more people are employed and have incoming wages.
Increased expenditure encourages economic growth, which can spark inflation. The figure acts as a significant indicator of the region's economic activity, particularly because it is released earlier than the GDP. However, because unemployment rates for member countries are released well before the aggregate Euro-zone rate, the figure often receives less attention. Construction spending gauges the level of construction activity in the United States.
The Construction Spending report looks at both residential and non-residential construction. The construction industry makes a significant contribution to the United States GDP in the form of investment expenditure as well as stimulus of industries related to building.
Furthermore, since builders are unlikely to pour money into construction projects unless they feel the economy favors their investment, changes in business sentiment like this are usually quickly seen in construction figures.
However, the report has little significance for market participants because of its untimely release. By the time the report is announced other reports, such building permits and building starts have already provided similar information. The report headline is the percentage change from the previous month.
The construction industry is a major force to the United States economy, even without including non-construction businesses that are tied to building, such as finance, the furnishing industry, appliance industry and other manufacturing. Private Construction activity can be an effective indicator of business confidence.
The ISM Manufacturing Survey is valued for its timeliness, and indeed, during waning boom cycles analyst point out that ISM tends to be one of the biggest market moving economic releases. These components reflect sentiment towards inflation and labor conditions - two of the market's most significant health indicators.
The headline figure is expressed as a diffusion index based on survey responses. For each category production, new orders etc. The ISM manufacturing indicator is the aggregate of the results for all categories. Currency supplied by the Bank of Japan. The Monetary Base includes all banknotes and coins in circulation plus all currency held as deposits by the Bank of Japan.
As an official measure of the Japanese money supply, the Monetary Base will show the immediate impacts of monetary policy actions and can give an indication into the future direction of inflation. An expansion in the monetary base is generally inflationary while a decline will likely have the opposite effect. Measures changes in the selling prices of goods and services used by Euro-zone producers.
Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is an early indicator of inflation.
A higher PPI, especially when combined with high figures for other measures of inflation, will make the European Central Bank more inclined to raise interest rates. A low or falling PPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown. The Index headline is expressed as a month over month or annualized percentage change. The Euro-zone PPI excludes construction industry because it is vulnerable to seasonal price volatility that can distort index results. Tracks monthly developments in the Australian services sector, condensing data into an overall boom or bust index.
The composite index is based on the surveys for sales, new orders, employment, inventories and deliveries, compiled by American International Group. The AIG Performance of Service Index excludes industrial manufacturing sectors that tend to be volatile and seasonal, giving a clean picture of Australia's service sector that accounts for a majority of Aussie GDP. The headline number uses a 50 baseline, where above 50 signifies growth, while a number below 50 shows a contraction in the services sector.
Measures the monthly price change of New Zealand 's seventeen main commodity exports. Given that the exports act as the driving force of New Zealand 's economy, changes in their prices can affect GDP and exchange rates. An increase in export prices may suggest a strengthening of the Dollar as foreigners pay relatively more for New Zealand 's exports. Conversely, falling export prices may indicate a decline in demand for New Zealand commodities; weakening the exchange rate.
The headline value is the percentage change in the index from the previous month. Because the figure measures price changes in commodity goods, it acts as an early indicator of price changes. As such an early indicator the figure is useful in predicting future price direction. The number of domestic building permits granted for the month. Strong growth in new approvals and permits indicates a growing housing market. Because real estate generally leads economic developments - housing tends to thrive at the start of booms and wane at the onset of recession - the figure can be used with others to forecast future growth in the economy as a whole.
For this reason Business Approvals is one of eight components used to construct the Conference Board Leading Index, a widely used index to forecast Australia 's economic course. A strong housing market also tends to lead consumer spending. The headline number is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in new building approvals from the previous month.
The total value of goods and services sold each month at retail outlets. The report acts as a gauge of consumption and consumer confidence. An increasing number of sales signal consumer confidence and economic growth, which would fuel the Euro-zone economy. However, higher consumption also leads to inflationary pressures, which results in economic instability.
The headline is the monthly percentage change in retail sales. Gauges demand for mortgage application in the US. Growth in mortgages suggests a healthy housing market. Due to the multiplier effect housing has on the rest of the economy, rising activity suggests increased household income and economic expansion. Among the various indices measured in the survey, the purchase index and refinancing index most accurately reflect where the housing market is headed.
The purchasing index measures the change in existing home sales in all mortgage applications, while the refinance index measures the mortgage refinancing activity in all mortgage applications. Dollar volume of new orders, shipments, unfilled orders and inventories as reported by domestic manufacturers.
Factor Orders is not a widely watched economic release. The Advance Release on Durable Goods Activity reported one week earlier tends grab more market attention, given that durable goods make up more than half of factory orders. Factor Orders does provide a comprehensive look at the manufacturing sector.
Specifically, the New Orders figure can act as a gauge of demand across industries while Shipments are indicative of supply. The Unfilled Orders and Inventory figures reconcile the balance between New Orders and Shipments; high Shipments are indicative of an excess of demand relative to supply, high Inventories signal an excess of supply over demand.
Figures are reported in billions of dollars and also in percent change from the previous month. The value of orders placed for relatively long lasting goods. Durable Goods are expected to last more than three years.
Such products often require large investments and usually reflect optimism on the part of the buyer that their expenditure will be worthwhile. Because orders for goods have large sway over the actual production, this figure serves as an excellent forecast of U.
Durable Goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become skeptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly. The data is highly volatile as well, some volatility is eliminated with the Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation figure, making it the more closely watched indicator.
The headline figure is expressed as a percentage change from previous months. The Durable Goods Orders figure is also reported excluding transportation expenditures. Orders for items like civilian vehicles or aircrafts are fairly expensive and fluctuate idiosyncratically, distorting the Durable Goods Orders figure. Such goods are excluded to provide a better measure of durable goods orders.
The average amount of pre-tax earnings per regular employee, including overtime pay and bonuses. Though the report does not take into account all sources of household income accumulated wealth and capital gains from financial assets are omitted , Labor Cash Earnings accurately reflects the spending ability of domestic consumers, one of the driving forces behind economic growth.
Because growth in wages fuels higher consumption, rising Labor Cash Earnings generally lead to higher inflation. Measures the current economic activity based on a composite of indicators that track current business conditions in Japan. The headline number is derived by comparing the number of expanding indicators to the total number of indicators used. Included in the index are; the expansion or contraction of industrial production, capacity utilization, retail and wholesale sales, power consumption, non-scheduled work hours, the job-offer rate and operating profits.
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